Recent data shows: On March 25, the National Energy Administration released national power industry statistics from January to February. As of the end of February, the country's cumulative installed power generation capacity was approximately 2.97 billion kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation is approximately 650 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 56.9%; the installed wind power capacity is approximately 450 million kilowatts, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%.
From January to February this year, the country's newly installed solar power generation capacity was 36.72 million kilowatts, or 36.72GW, an increase of more than 80% compared with the same period last year (20.37 million kilowatts).
Showing the strong momentum of distributed photovoltaic development, the rapid growth of newly installed capacity not only means that solar power generation is rapidly penetrating into more regions and fields, but also indicates that my country's distributed photovoltaic market is about to usher in a new round of explosion. growth. So when we stand at a new starting point in 2024, the distributed photovoltaic market will also show a series of eye-catching development trends, which are worthy of our careful exploration.
1. Photovoltaic modules have higher power, with 615/620 watts becoming the mainstream Driven by the continuous innovation of photovoltaic technology, the power level of photovoltaic modules is steadily increasing. It is expected that in 2024, 615/620-watt photovoltaic modules will become the mainstream of the market. This change not only reflects the rapid development of photovoltaic technology, but also indicates that the power generation efficiency of distributed photovoltaic systems will be significantly improved. The popularization of high-power components will help reduce the cost of electricity and improve the economic benefits of distributed photovoltaic projects.
2. N-type modules are widely popularized, and the market share is expected to increase by more than 80%. As N-type technology continues to mature and cost advantages gradually emerge, the popularity of N-type modules in the distributed photovoltaic market will increase significantly. It is expected that the market share of N-type modules will increase to more than 80% in 2024. This trend will accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the photovoltaic industry and promote the development of distributed photovoltaic systems in a more efficient and stable direction.
3. Accelerate the rush for grid-connected capacity, and provide early warning of grid load capacity to increase the difficulty of development. With the rapid growth of distributed photovoltaic installed capacity, the pressure on the power grid is increasing. Power grids in many places have issued early warnings on distributed photovoltaic capacity, and the review and management of newly installed capacity will be more stringent. This trend will make the development of distributed photovoltaic projects more difficult, but it will also promote the coordinated development of the photovoltaic industry and the power grid, making distributed photovoltaic systems more intelligent and efficient.
4. Business expenses are rising and rooftop resources are becoming increasingly scarce. As the distributed photovoltaic market continues to boom, rooftop resources are becoming increasingly scarce. In the case of limited capacity, the value of rooftop resources will be further enhanced. It is expected that the business fee in some areas will reach more than 0.5 yuan per watt, which has become a common phenomenon. This trend will prompt distributed photovoltaic companies to pay more attention to project screening and risk assessment, and improve the quality and efficiency of projects.
5. The whole village convergence is gradually implemented, and low voltage and high voltage are connected to the grid. Due to transformer capacity limitations and the reduction of exploitable roof resources, the whole village convergence scheme is gradually being implemented. As long as the mainstream 10KV high voltage does not exceed the capacity, low voltage and high voltage grid connection will be gradually promoted based on policies. This trend will help improve the grid connection efficiency and reliability of distributed photovoltaic systems and reduce grid connection costs. It will also promote the upgrading and intelligent management of rural power grids.
6. Energy storage technology supports the development of distributed photovoltaics Energy storage technology is an important support for the development of distributed photovoltaics. With the continuous advancement of energy storage technologies such as lithium-ion batteries, the energy storage capacity of distributed photovoltaic systems will be significantly improved. By being equipped with an energy storage system, distributed photovoltaics can continue to provide power at night or under low light conditions, making up for the problem of insufficient power supply from the grid and improving power supply reliability. At the same time, energy storage technology can also help distributed photovoltaic systems achieve peak peak shaving and valley filling, reducing users' electricity costs.
7. Cross-border cooperation promotes industrial integration The development of distributed photovoltaics is inseparable from cross-border cooperation. In the future, photovoltaic companies will carry out in-depth cooperation with industries such as power, construction, and transportation to jointly promote the application and development of distributed photovoltaics. Through cross-border cooperation, we can not only achieve resource sharing and complementary advantages, but also promote the optimization and upgrading of the industrial chain and improve the competitiveness of the entire industry.
8. Intelligent management has become the new standard With the deep integration of technologies such as the Internet of Things and big data, intelligent management of distributed photovoltaic systems will become the new standard. Through the intelligent monitoring platform, users can grasp the operating status of the photovoltaic system in real time and realize remote monitoring, fault diagnosis and automatic optimization. At the same time, intelligent management will also help distributed photovoltaic systems to better integrate into smart grids, realize interaction with the grid, and improve the overall benefits of the system.
